Re: [OPE] Employment outlook

From: Michael Webber <>
Date: Thu Jan 13 2011 - 17:40:03 EST

well, you know the classical relation:

output growth = labour force growth x productivity growth.

On 14 January 2011 08:18, Jurriaan Bendien <> wrote:
> I hope of course I am wrong in my forecast about the total situation, but to
> be honest I don't think I will be. If the slump achieved that roughly the
> same amount of output is produced by fewer workers earning the same or less,
> then the labour market would gain more traction only if final demand
> significantly increased. Obviously some industies and national economies
> still grow but that growth is to a large extent cancelled out by declines
> elsewhere. But, globally speaking the increase in final demand (as defined
> for the purposes of the product account) seems to increase no more than the
> natural increase in the world population.
> *In 2000, for example, in round figures the world population was 6.1 billion
> (UN estimate) and world GDP $39 trillion in constant 2005 USD. You obtain a
> per capita GDP of $6426.
> *In 2010, world population was 6.9 billion and world GDP $50 trillion in
> constant 2005 USD. That gives a per capita GDP of $7260.
> This suggests that world GDP did rise by 13% in real terms or roughly 1.3%
> per year, and this growth is almost exactly matched by the increase in world
> population which is also about 13%. So yes then you could conclude that for
> every 1% of population growth, world GDP also rises by 1% in real terms, but
> just how reliable such estimates are and what the effect is of estimation
> procedures I don't know.
> J.
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Michael Webber
Professorial Fellow
Department of Resource Management and Geography
The University of Melbourne
Mail address: 221 Bouverie Street, Carlton, VIC 3010
Phone: 0402 421 283
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Received on Thu Jan 13 17:42:11 2011

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