[OPE] Employment outlook

From: Jurriaan Bendien <jurriaanbendien@online.nl>
Date: Thu Jan 13 2011 - 16:18:55 EST

I hope of course I am wrong in my forecast about the total situation, but to
be honest I don't think I will be. If the slump achieved that roughly the
same amount of output is produced by fewer workers earning the same or less,
then the labour market would gain more traction only if final demand
significantly increased. Obviously some industies and national economies
still grow but that growth is to a large extent cancelled out by declines
elsewhere. But, globally speaking the increase in final demand (as defined
for the purposes of the product account) seems to increase no more than the
natural increase in the world population.

*In 2000, for example, in round figures the world population was 6.1 billion
(UN estimate) and world GDP $39 trillion in constant 2005 USD. You obtain a
per capita GDP of $6426.

*In 2010, world population was 6.9 billion and world GDP $50 trillion in
constant 2005 USD. That gives a per capita GDP of $7260.

This suggests that world GDP did rise by 13% in real terms or roughly 1.3%
per year, and this growth is almost exactly matched by the increase in world
population which is also about 13%. So yes then you could conclude that for
every 1% of population growth, world GDP also rises by 1% in real terms, but
just how reliable such estimates are and what the effect is of estimation
procedures I don't know.


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Received on Thu Jan 13 16:21:02 2011

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