(OPE-L) Re: Who are the Marxist Chicken Littles?

From: Gerald A. Levy (Gerald_A_Levy@MSN.COM)
Date: Sun Sep 19 2004 - 11:13:50 EDT

Hi Allin.

> It seems that the C.L.s may have a point (even if Catherine Mann has
> abandoned their ranks).  The US current account balance hit its last
> major low under Reagan, in 1985-87.  The current deficit under Bush is
> about 50% greater, in proportion to US GDP, than that earlier figure.
> One does wonder how long the other capitalist powers will be willing
> to lend Americans the money to buy German and Japanese SUVs and the
> fuel to run them.

Yes, that's an issue.  Those other capitalist powers may continue to
lend the money if they think that a failure to do so would push the
US economy into crisis and with it the global capitalist economy
_and_ their individual nations.

Regarding the US economy, I think a lot of us have been expecting
the other shoe to drop for years now.   Fred, Steve K, Alejandro V
and myself have suggested at various times (and for various reasons)
on the list  that the US economy was due to experience a much more
severe economic crisis. (Offhand, I don't recall the arguments
advanced by Rakesh against the "chicken littles".) I don't think that
makes us "Chicken Littles",  though, as I don't think we were being
alarmists or asserting fallacies: rather, we had legitimate reasons to
believe that a deeper economic crisis in the US was on its way. I guess
the really interesting question here isn't whether we were CLs but
_why_ the US economy didn't slip into a deeper crisis.

One also wonders what the impact of the ongoing war against the
people of Iraq will be on the US economy.  I don't think it's too soon
to conclude that a lot of the supposed advantages of the war for
the US -- both politically and economically -- haven't panned out
as the US ruling clique planned.  Indeed, I think it's becoming
apparent that the Iraq War will retard economic growth in the US.
For example, consider the impact on the budget deficit.  And what
do the Bush ideologues have to show -- in terms of economic
consequences -- for US capital because of the War?  Not much,
I think.  So -- call me Chicken Little if you wish -- I think that the
US economy may _still_ be headed for The Fall (no pun intended)
-- but I wouldn't anticipate that will happen before the November

In solidarity, Jerry

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