[OPE-L:3767] predicting market prices

Gerald Lev (glevy@pratt.edu)
Tue, 3 Dec 1996 09:44:15 -0800 (PST)

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Paul C wrote in [OPE-L:3764]:

> The web page
> http://www.cs.strath.ac.uk/Contrib/wpc/reports/
> contains pointers to some empirical work that Allin
> and I have done on the relative usefulness of values
> and production prices in predicting market prices,
> in particular the paper:
> http://www.cs.strath.ac.uk/Contrib/wpc/reports/rr-167-94.ps.Z
> presents evidence for the 2 attractor theory and summarises
> some of Farjoun and Machover's arguments.

I'm not sure what you mean here about "predicting market prices." I
thought that your work attempts to show an empirical *correlation* between
values, production prices, and market prices. This seems to me to be very
different that *predicting* prices. That is, don't you take the labor
values, production prices, and _ex post_ market prices as *data* rather
than develop a predictive model for market prices?

If you actually think that you can predict market prices, then I (along
with many investors on Wall Street!) would like to know your "system".

Given the level of uncertainty associated with market transactions, it
seems to me that any "system" that attempts to predict individual market
prices will be ... uncertain.

In Solidarity,