RE: [OPE] long waves

Date: Wed Oct 14 2009 - 09:41:47 EDT

> I'm not really convinced either. What I do know is that there have been eras
> of faster and slower output growth rates and market expansion in the history
> of industrial capitalism, lasting for an interval of time often close to one
> generation (about 25 years or so). But the concept of "long waves" or "long
> cycles" suggests a recurrent empirical pattern which can be explained with
> the same kinds of variables, and that was also Ernest Mandel's idea: a
> hausse in profit volumes which is eventually choked off by a falling profit
> rate. That is much more difficult to prove, in particular because the very
> way in which the profitability of enterprise has been regarded has changed
> across time.


Hi Jurriaan:


Yes, there are (at least) two issues. One is whether the data is robust enough

and the time series long enough to say that there actually have been these cycles

and the other issue is that of causality - which you go on to discuss. I agree

that there are problems with establishing causality but I'm not even convinced

that one can extrapolate a cyclical trend given the relatively short number of

'cycles' which have allegedly occurred.


In solidarity, Jerry

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Received on Wed Oct 14 09:48:45 2009

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