[OPE] EU forecast by the European Commission

From: Jurriaan Bendien <adsl675281@telfort.nl>
Date: Mon May 04 2009 - 10:30:48 EDT

The EC forecast is very similar to what I wrote on OPE-L in previous months.

In the European Commission's spring forecast, the value of GDP in the
European Union is projected to fall absolutely by 4% this year and to
"stabilise" in 2010.

The unemployment rate in the EU labour force is expected to increase to an
average 11% in the EU in 2010.

The EU budget deficit is set to more than double this year (from 2.3% of GDP
in 2008 to 6%) and to increase further in 2010 (to 7.25%).

Total employment is expected to reduce by about 2.5% of the labour force in
both the EU and the euro area this year and by a further 1.5% in 2010,
resulting in about 8.5 million net job losses for the two years, in contrast
to the net job creation of 9.5 million during 2006-08.

So basically it looks like the net gain in jobs in the last few years will
be more than cancelled out, taking into account that population growth, and
the growth of the labour force (which has increased by 3 to 4 million in
previous years; the EU labor force is circa 225 million). As a corollary
average real wages will stagnate or reduce.


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