Re: [OPE-L] The Coming Credit Meltdown?

From: glevy@PRATT.EDU
Date: Fri Jun 22 2007 - 11:16:19 EDT

> I wish that, rather than raise doomsday scenarios based on flimsy
> evidence, somebody would interview some international bankers who can
> talk meaningfully and in a level-headed way about the quantitative
> proportions of the structure of the global credit market.

Hi Jurriaan:

I wouldn't trust what international bankers (or economists working for
banks) have to say about these questions since they have a stake in what
happens and they know that what they say can impact investor expectations.
 Like state officials, they are "spin doctors".

I have, instead, a simpler wish: I wish that those who make predictions
about upcoming "meltdowns" simply indicate success and/or failure criteria
so that we can agree that if a prediction does not come to be realized
in the manner anticipated by a certain date, one has to reexamine the
basic hypothesis.  I make this wish because there are some who for over
a decade have predicted the meltdown and it hasn't happened yet.

>  It doesn't necessarily have any specific consequence with regard to
> the radicalisation of people.

I agree completely!

In solidarity, Jerry

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