[OPE-L] Statistics: the "war against terror" produces more terrorism than there was before

From: Jurriaan Bendien (adsl675281@TISCALI.NL)
Date: Sun Apr 08 2007 - 08:04:58 EDT

(...) until now, no one has done a serious statistical analysis of whether
an "Iraq effect" does exist. We have undertaken such a study, drawing on
data in the mipt-rand Terrorism database (terrorismknowledgebase .org),
widely considered the best unclassified database on terrorism incidents.
Our study yields one resounding finding: The rate of fatal terrorist attacks
around the world by jihadist groups, and the number of people killed in
those attacks, increased dramatically after the invasion of Iraq. Globally
there was a 607 percent rise in the average yearly incidence of attacks
(28.3 attacks per year before and 199.8 after) and a 237 percent rise in the
fatality rate (from 501 to 1,689 deaths per year). A large part of this rise
occurred in Iraq, the scene of almost half the global total of jihadist
terrorist attacks. But even excluding Iraq and Afghanistan - the other
current jihadist hot spot - there has been a 35 percent rise in the
number of attacks, with a 12 percent rise in fatalities.

Contrary to Bush's assertion, jihadists have not let the Iraq War distract
them from targeting the United States and its allies. The rate of attacks on
Western interests and citizens has risen by almost 25 percent, while the
yearly fatality rate has increased by 4 percent, a figure that would have
been higher had planned attacks, such as the London airline plot, not been
prevented. (...)


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