[OPE-L:6080] sources of supply for the international petroleum industry (fwd)

From: glevy@pratt.edu
Date: Wed Oct 17 2001 - 10:39:25 EDT

(The following is the 2nd post in a row that I am re-sending from
this address since when I send messages from msn to ope-l they are being 'delayed' whereas when I send messages from this account to 
ope-l they get through right away. Yet, when I send messages to any
addresses other than ope-l from my msn address they get through right
away. Am I being paronoid?/Jerry)

  Re Patrick's [6071]:

  In the newspaper article by James Flanigan:
  the author wrote:

> To be sure, the war today is in Afghanistan, which is not an oil producer

What are the reasons to think that Afghanistan will *ever* become a major oil
producer? I.e. what are the estimates of potential oil supply in Afghanistan
and what would be the	capital costs required to mine that oil?

On a related note, it is *very* important to recall that there are 'oil rich'
and 'oil poor'	 nations in the Middle East.

E.g. neither Israel nor Palestine have significant oil in the ground. It
would seem reasonable to infer then that US policy towards Israel has not
been *primarily* about oil (so US policy on the Middle East is not just about
"oil, oil, and oil").

> In the meantime, Russia will continue to develop its relationship with the
West, which has shifted dramatically in recent weeks. In quickly calling
President Bush on Sept. 11 to pledge Russian support for the U.S., "Putin
made smart moves that change Russia's economic outlook," says Joseph
Stanislaw, director of Cambridge Energy Research   Associates. <
It is the current economic crisis in Russia, to a large extent brought on by
the US government's policy of encouraging 'free market capitalism' in Russia,
which allows the US to have clout in negotiations with Putin over oil
exports, i.e. the US literally has Putin over	a barrel (of oil).

  > Oil Reserves and U.S. Imports
In the long term, the holders of the biggest petroleum reserves will remain
critical to the global economy.   *--*
Country Oil reserves* (Billion Barrels) Saudi Arabia 262 Iraq 112.5 United
Arab 97.8 Emirates Kuwait 96.5 Iran 89.7 Venezuela 77.0 Russia 48.6 United
States 29.7 Libya 29.5 Mexico 28.3 <

  Note how Afghanistan doesn't appear above.

  Yet, also note the # for Russia (48.6B) compared to the #s for Middle
  Eastern nations (1028.0 for the 6 ME nations above). This would
  suggest that imports of Russian oil can not entirely serve as a
  substitute for importing oil from the Middle East over the medium to
  long term.

  Of course, it is possible that demand could be decreased in the US
  (as suggested by both Flanigan and Fred).  I don't think that the US
  government will commit itself readily to a policy of promoting energy
  conservation and alternative energy sources.

  >U.S. Imports by Country (billions of barrels per day)
Supplier Country U.S. imports Saudi Arabia 1.7 Venezuela 1.3 Canada 1.3
Mexico 1.3 Nigeria 0.9 Iraq 0.6 Angola 0.3 Norway 0.3 Kuwait 0.3 Colombia 0.2
*--* * U.S. imports are January-July 2001) Source: U.S. Energy Information
Administration <

  Note that for the above, 2.6 out of 8.2 billion barrels are imported from
  3 Middle Eastern nations above. Note also how a greater quantity of
  imported oil to the US comes from Central and South America. One
  might anticipate that the US government will encourage a greater
  exporting of oil from that region and additional drilling and 'exploration'
  there (with significant environmental consequences).

  The 2.6 billion barrels per day from other NAFTA nations (Canada and
  Mexico) are quite significant.

  In solidarity, Jerry

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