[OPE-L:4191] Re: Who agrees with Popper? Well, not the Bayesians

From: Steve Keen (s.keen@uws.edu.au)
Date: Fri Oct 20 2000 - 23:09:53 EDT

Hi Julian,

No problem with any of your statements--I don't think falsifiability is of
much use in assessing the truth of theories either. What I was objecting to
was "developments" of theory which make it non-falsifiable.

And you have a case of mistaken identity: I didn't make any comments about
empirical research--I think Allin or Paul did that.

At 13:33 20/10/00 +0100, you wrote:
>You might want to hold back on the thanks somewhat -- what I agree with in
>falsificationism is its use as a test of bona fides: I certainly *don't*
>think it's (usually) much use in assessing the truth of theories.
>This is for a reason which you bring out in another post: empirical evidence
>is rarely terribly conclusive, even if we leave the D-Q problem aside.
>Moreover, I'm surprised to see you instancing statistical testing of
>hypotheses, since falsification seems to be something that stat.s tests are
>intrinsically incapable of producing.
>Your account of your econometric work seemed to say that there have been
>(many?) occasions when the evidence, when it has become available, has
>lowered your degree of belief in your initial hypotheses.
>This, of course, is Bayesianism, which has always seemed to me highly
>effective as both description of and prescription for actual practice in
>empirical testing.
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From:	Steve Keen [SMTP:s.keen@uws.edu.au]
>> Sent:	Thursday, October 19, 2000 11:13 PM
>> To:	ope-l@galaxy.csuchico.edu
>> Subject:	[OPE-L:4171] Re: Who agrees with Popper?
>> Dear Julian,
>> Thank you thank you thank you! -:)
>> Steve
>> At 21:11 19/10/00 +0100, you wrote:
>> >It's annoying to have to put in a good word for this vastly-over-rated
>> (not
>> >least by himself) thinker -- but falsifiability is *quite* a good idea as
>> a
>> >test of whether a set of notions is, so to speak, advanced in good faith.
>> >(And his anecdote against Adler, which he uses to illustrate his
>> >disillusionment with confirmationism, is certainly both funny and
>> >well-directed).
Dr. Steve Keen
Senior Lecturer
Economics & Finance
University of Western Sydney Macarthur
Building 11 Room 30,
Goldsmith Avenue, Campbelltown
PO Box 555 Campbelltown NSW 2560
s.keen@uws.edu.au 61 2 4620-3016 Fax 61 2 4626-6683
Home 02 9558-8018 Mobile 0409 716 088
Home Page: http://bus.macarthur.uws.edu.au/steve-keen/

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